A Multi-Scalar Model to Identify the Causes of Decreased Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) in the United States
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2017-09-18
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TRIS Online Accession Number:01701620
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Edition:Year 25 Final Report
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Abstract:This project sought to understand the causes of the recent downturn in vehicle miles travel (VMT) in the United States, a phenomenon that has been labeled “Peak VMT” or “Peak Travel.” Peak VMT is important because transportation funding mechanisms are strongly tied to VMT levels where fuel tax revenues are directly impacted by driving levels and vehicle fuel efficiency. With respect to expenditures, governments in the U.S. at multiple levels often use VMT totals to allocate highway and roadway funds. Assuming the trends of the previous 50 years to continue, transportation policy-makers are predicting continued VMT increases into the future despite the peak and decline that is now observed across the U.S. Using estimates that do not recognize or account for Peak VMT will result in planning and building transportation systems that fail to meet societal demands as well as result in significant funding shortfalls as expected revenues fail to materialize. Accordingly, it is important to understand why Peak VMT is occurring in order to build appropriate sustainable, resilient and cost-effective transportation infrastructure for the future. In addition, continued transportation planning that fails to coordinate with greenhouse gas reduction planning (which often calls for strategies to reduce VMT) will result in competing rather than complementary approaches, and will threaten the effectiveness of both planning processes.
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