Statistical Models of Accidents on Interchange Ramps and Speed-Change Lanes

Bauer, K.M.; Harwood, D.W.

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Statistical Models of Accidents on Interchange Ramps and Speed-Change Lanes

1997-07-01
By Bauer, K.M. ; Harwood, D.W.

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English

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Creators:

Bauer, K.M. ; Harwood, D.W.

Bauer, K.M. ; Harwood, D.W. Less -
Corporate Contributors:

Midwest Research Institute (Kansas City, Mo.) ; United States. Federal Highway Administration

Midwest Research Institute (Kansas City, Mo.) ; United States. Federal Highway Administration Less -
Subject/TRT Terms:

[+]

Accident Modeling Crash Risk Forecasting Geometric Design Highway Factors In Crashes Interchange Ramps Negative Binomial Poisson Regression Ramp Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) Ramps (Interchanges) Speed-Change Lanes Speed Change Lanes Traffic Accidents Traffic Models
Publication/ Report Number:

FHWA-RD-97-106
Resource Type:

Research Paper
Geographical Coverage:

Washington ; United States

Washington ; United States Less -
TRIS Online Accession Number:

752101
OCLC Number:

39643450
Corporate Publisher:

United States. Federal Highway Administration
NTL Classification:

NTL-HIGHWAY/ROAD TRANSPORTATION-Design;NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-Accidents;NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-Highway Safety;NTL-OPERATIONS AND TRAFFIC CONTROLS-Traffic Flow;NTL-REFERENCES AND DIRECTORIES-Statistics;
Abstract:

The objective of this research was to develop statistical models for defining the relationship between traffic accidents and highway geometric design elements and traffic volumes for interchange ramps and speed-change lanes. The database used to develop the models consisted of data for interchange ramps and speed-change lanes in the State of Washington and was obtained from the FHWA Highway Safety Information System. Additional geometric design features were obtained from the review of interchange diagrams. Data on other geometric design features, such as the ramp grades and horizontal curvature, were collected for a sample of ramps from aerial photographs and other existing highway agency files. The statistical modeling approaches used in the research included Poisson and negative binomial regression. Regression models to determine relationships between accidents and the geometric design and traffic volume characteristics of ramps were difficult to develop. Most of variability was explained by ramp Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT). Other variables found to be significant in some models included mainline freeway AADT, area type (rural/urban), ramp type (on/off), ramp configuration, and combined length of ramp and speed-change lane. The best models obtained for predicting accident frequencies were those obtained when modeling the combined accident frequency for an entire ramp, together with its adjacent speed-change lanes. These models provided a better fit than separate models for ramps and speed-change lanes. Models developed to predict total accidents generally performed slightly better than did models to predict fatal and injury accidents. Report conducted under contract DTFH61-92-C-00031.
Format:

PDF
Collection(s):

Federal Highway Administration
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:c4c66aa0823e690322d9f53551d5c3ac21e5f55679895a8ab5fdb51fa6e9d9d4
Download URL:

https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/38348/dot_38348_DS1.pdf
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Statistical Models of Accidents on Interchange Ramps and Speed-Change Lanes

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