United States Department of Transportation
i
The Freight Transportation Services Index as a Leading Economic Indicator
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2009-09-01
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[PDF-209.09 KB]
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Abstract:The Bureau of Transportation Statistics' (BTS) freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) showed a decline a full year and a half prior to the start of the current recession. This downturn suggests the TSI may prove particularly useful as an indicator of economic downturns. Leading economic indicators identify and anticipate emerging turns in the current business cycle by historically turning downward before a recession or a slowdown in the economy and upward before an expansion or acceleration. According to BTS research1, over the past three decades the freight TSI led slowdowns in the economy by an average of 4–5 months.
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