Forecasting the Clearance Time of Freeway Accidents

Smith, Kevin; Smith, Brian L., 1967-; University of Virginia. Center for Transportation Studies

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Forecasting the Clearance Time of Freeway Accidents

2002-01-01
By Smith, Kevin ; Smith, Brian L., 1967-

[PDF-585.39 KB]

English

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Details:

Alternative Title:

Forecasting the Clearance Time of Freeway Accidents: Final Report of ITS Center Project: Incident Duration Forecasting
Creators:

Smith, Kevin ; Smith, Brian L., 1967-

Smith, Kevin ; Smith, Brian L., 1967- Less -
Corporate Creators:

University of Virginia. Center for Transportation Studies
Corporate Contributors:

National ITS Implementation Research Center (Va.) ; United States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) Program

National ITS Implementation Research Center (Va.) ; United States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) Program Less -
Subject/TRT Terms:

[+]

Classification Tree Model Clearance Time Computer Models Crashes Decision Making Forecasting Freeway Incidents Freeways Incident Duration Metropolitan Areas Nonparametric Regression Model Nonrecurrent Congestion Stochastic Model Traffic Managers
Publication/ Report Number:

Smart Travel Lab Report No. STL-2001-01
Resource Type:

Tech Report
Geographical Coverage:

United States
Corporate Publisher:

University of Virginia. Center for Transportation Studies
Abstract:

Freeway congestion is a major and costly problem in many U.S. metropolitan areas. From a traveler's perspective, congestion has costs in terms of longer travel times and lost productivity. From the traffic manager's perspective, congestion causes a freeway to operate inefficiently and below capacity. There are also environmental costs associated with congestion such as increased pollution and noise. Researchers have estimated that "non-recurring" congestion due to freeway incidents such as accidents, disabled vehicles, and weather events accounts for one-half to three-fourths of the total congestion on metropolitan freeways in this country. The objective of this study is to develop a forecasting model that can predict the clearance time of a freeway accident. This can aid traffic managers in making decisions regarding the appropriate response to freeway incidents. Three models were investigated in this paper; a stochastic model, nonparametric regression model, and classification tree model. The stochastic model was not applied to forecasting future accidents due to the lack of a probabilistic distribution to fit the clearance time data. The Weibull and lognormal distributions have been applied to incident duration in the past, but were not applicable to the accident clearance time data used in this study. The other two models were developed but suffered from poor performance in predicting the clearance time of future accidents. However, the classification tree model appears to be well suited for forecasting the phases of incident duration given a database of incidents with reliable and informative characteristics.
Format:

PDF
Collection(s):

University Transportation Centers US Transportation Collection
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:f0afab0bb7f2c7efdbea179d89e73bc4e6e86cb6be0eec01609e20362aa699f1
Download URL:

https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/34048/dot_34048_DS1.pdf
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Forecasting the Clearance Time of Freeway Accidents

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