Estimating the Effects of Extreme Weather on Transportation Infrastructure
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2016-12-01
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:Climate change, already taking place, is expected to become more pronounced in the future. Current damage assessment models for extreme weather events, such as FEMA's Hazus, do not take the full impact to transportation systems into consideration. As a result, the consequences of climate change scenarios on freight transportation infrastructure and the system network, including disruption to commodity freight flow and access, are not well characterized. This research develops and pilots test a methodology that estimates the actual transportation infrastructure cost of a climate change-induced event, with an initial focus on flooding of highway infrastructure in the Nashville, TN, region for which impact data is readily available. Additionally, at a larger scale, geographic information systems can be utilized coupled with downscaled climate model projections to perform screening-level analysis of transportation infrastructure assets that may be most at risk. Performing a screening-level analysis can assist decision makers in knowing where to allocate resources for additional analysis using the approach developed for Nashville, TN. This is demonstrated using NARCCAP model output as the source for identifying “regional” or localized “hot spots” for evaluation using Hazus or other tools for the eastern portion of the United States. Ultimately, the two approaches presented can be used individually or combined to provide evaluation at multiple levels of decision support using publicly available tools to estimate the potential risk under future climate conditions to transportation assets.
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