Improving techniques to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on urban streams in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia, 2011 (ver. 1.1, March 2014) : U.S. Geological Survey scientific investigations report 2014-5030.
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2014-03-01
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Edition:Version 1.1, March 2014
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Abstract:Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency
of floods are essential for the design of transportation and
water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and
flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly
important in densely populated urban areas. In order
to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations
(streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical
coverage that would allow for application of regional
regression equations across State boundaries, and build
on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S.
Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United
States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for
determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban
and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by
regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina,
and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis
of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural
streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban
streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in
this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The
regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow
data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously
included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports
and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that
were not included in the previous Southeast rural floodfrequency
investigation for a total of 488 streamgages
included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis.
The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small,
rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm,
which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson
type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the
logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable,
the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and
historic information. Additionally, the application of a
generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the detection of
multiple potentially influential low outliers.
Streamgage basin characteristics were determined
using geographical information system techniques. Initial ordinary least squares regression simulations reduced the
number of basin characteristics on the basis of such factors
as statistical significance, coefficient of determination,
Mallow’s Cp statistic, and ease of measurement of the
explanatory variable. Application of generalized least
squares regression techniques produced final predictive
(regression) equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-,
2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability
flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three
hydrologic regions (HR1, Piedmont–Ridge and Valley; HR3,
Sand Hills; and HR4, Coastal Plain), which previously had
been defined from exploratory regression analysis in the
Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation. Because of the
limited availability of urban streamgages in the Coastal Plain
of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, additional
urban streamgages in Florida and New Jersey were used in
the regression analysis for this region. Including the urban
streamgages in New Jersey allowed for the expansion of the
applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain
from 3.5 to 53.5 square miles. Average standard error of
prediction for the predictive equations, which is a measure
of the average accuracy of the regression equations when
predicting flood estimates for ungaged sites, range from
25.0 percent for the 10-percent annual exceedance probability
regression equation for the Piedmont–Ridge and Valley
region to 73.3 percent for the 0.2-percent annual exceedance
probability regression equation for the Sand Hills region.
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