United States Department of Transportation
i
Estimation of average daily traffic on local roads in Kentucky.
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2016-07-01
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[PDF-2.10 MB]
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Abstract:Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) officials use annual average daily traffic (AADT) to estimate intersection
performance across the state maintained highway system. KYTC currently collects AADTs for state maintained
roads but frequently lacks this information on local roads. A method is needed to estimate local road AADTs in a
cost-effective and reasonable manner. Kentucky Transportation Center (KTC) researchers conducted a literature
review on U.S. AADT models but found that none of them were suitable to Kentucky. Therefore, KTC developed an
AADT model using non-linear regression to estimate AADTs on approaches to those intersections.
KTC developed a Poisson distributed, non-linear regression model to estimate AADT. This model divided the state
into three regions encompassing all of the highway districts: West (Districts 1, 2, 3, and 4), North Central (Districts
5, 6, and 7), and East (Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12). This partitioning accounted for geographic and socioeconomic
variability across the state. Each regional model relied upon three independent variables: probe count, residential
vehicle registration, and curve rating. HERE proprietary probe counts—indicative of vehicle movements—provide
tracking visibility on a select portion of vehicles moving across Kentucky highways. Residential vehicle
registrations can be used to estimate trip generation information. Finally, the curve rating partially indicates
accessibility.
Model results were adjusted to KYTC daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT) county control totals for local roads.
Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of model errors for use in intersection safety analysis.
Results indicate that the estimates generated can be effectively used for safety assessment and countermeasure
prioritization.
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