Net effects of gasoline price changes on transit ridership in U.S. urban areas.

Details

• Creators:
  Iseki, Hiroyuki ; Ali, Rubaba
• Corporate Creators:
  Mineta Transportation Institute
• Corporate Contributors:
  California. Dept. of Transportation ; United States. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Innovative Technology Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Urban areas
  • Gasoline
  • Prices
  • Ridership
  • Field tests
  • Regression analysis
  • Bus transit
  • Railroad commuter service
  • Light rail transit
  • Public transit
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• Publication/ Report Number:
  CA-MTI-14-1106 ; MTI Report 12-19
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Corporate Publisher:
  Mineta Transportation Institute
• Abstract:
  Using panel data of transit ridership and gasoline prices for ten selected U.S. urbanized areas over the time period of 2002 to 2011, ; this study analyzes the effect of gasoline prices on ridership of the four main transit modes—bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter ; rail—as well as their aggregate ridership. Improving upon past studies on the subject, this study accounts for endogeneity between ; the supply of services and ridership, and controls for a comprehensive list of factors that may potentially influence transit ridership. ; This study also examines short- and long-term effects and non-constant effects at different gasoline prices. ; The analysis found varying effects, depending on transit modes and other conditions. Strong evidence was found for positive ; short-term effects only for bus and the aggregate: a 0.61-0.62 percent ridership increase in response to a 10 percent increase in ; current gasoline prices (elasticity of 0.061 to 0.062). The long-term effects of gasoline prices, on the other hand, was significant ; for all modes and indicated a total ridership increase ranging from 0.84 percent for bus to 1.16 for light rail, with commuter rail, ; heavy rail, and the aggregate transit in response to a 10 percent increase in gasoline prices. The effects at the higher gasoline ; price level of over $3 per gallon were found to be more substantial, with a ridership increase of 1.67 percent for bus, 2.05 percent ; for commuter rail, and 1.80 percent for the aggregate for the same level of gasoline price changes. Light rail shows even a higher ; rate of increase of 9.34 percent for gasoline prices over $4. In addition, a positive threshold boost effect at the $3 mark of gasoline ; prices was found for commuter and heavy rails, resulting in a substantially higher rate of ridership increase. ; The results of this study suggest that transit agencies should prepare for a potential increase in ridership during peak periods that ; can be generated by substantial gasoline price increases over $3 per gallon for bus and commuter rail modes, and over $4 per ; gallon for light rail, in order to accommodate higher transit travel needs of the public through pricing strategies, general financing, ; capacity management, and operations planning of transit services.
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• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  DTRT12-G-UTC21
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/28385/dot_28385_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.34 MB]
• Collection(s):
  University Transportation Centers ; US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:3e0f5bb028c1178875186a22f313d1645c2317769f3babc25f3495aec4e5baa4