The future of fully automated vehicles : opportunities for vehicle- and ride-sharing, with cost and emissions savings.
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2014-08-01
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Abstract:Fully automated or autonomous vehicles (AVs) hold great promise for the future of transportation. By 2020
Google, auto manufacturers and other technology providers intend to introduce self-driving cars to the public with
either limited or fully autonomous capabilities. AVs may be able to save the U.S. economy up to $37.7 billion in
comprehensive costs from safety, mobility and parking improvements at the 10% market penetration, and potentially
up to $447.1 billion with 90% market penetration. Even with only 10% market share, over 1,000 lives could be
saved annually. However, realizing these potential benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls requires more than just
technology advancements: significant barriers to a successful rollout include AV costs, liability, security, and
privacy.
Once fully self-driving vehicles can safely and legally drive unoccupied on U.S. streets, a new transportation
mode for personal travel looks set to arrive. This new mode is the shared automated vehicle (SAV), combining on-demand service with self-driving capabilities. This work simulates a fleet of SAVs operating within the city of
Austin, using Austin’s transportation network and travel demand flows. This model incorporates dynamic ride-sharing (DRS), allowing two or more travelers with similar origins, destinations and departure times to share a ride.
Model results indicate that each SAV could replace around 10 conventionally-owned household vehicles while
serving over 56,000 person-trips. SAVs’ ability to relocate while unoccupied between serving one traveler and the
next may cause an increase of 4-8% more travel; however, DRS can result in reduced overall VMT, given enough
SAV-using travelers willing to ride-share. SAVs should produce favorable emissions outcomes, with an estimated
16% less energy use and 48% lower volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, per person-trip formerly served by a
household vehicle.
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