Modal shift and high-speed rail : a review of the current literature.

Details

• Creators:
  Haas, Peter J.
• Corporate Creators:
  Mineta Transportation Institute
• Corporate Contributors:
  United States. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Innovative Technology Administration ; California. Dept. of Transportation. Office of Research
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • High speed rail
  • Modal shift
  • Literature reviews
  • Ridership
  • Market share
  • Competition
• Publication/ Report Number:
  CA-MTI-14-1223
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Corporate Publisher:
  Mineta Transportation Institute
• Abstract:
  This report provides a review of scholarly literature with direct relevance to the topic of modal shift and high-speed rail (HSR). ; HSR systems are usually planned on the expectation that they will attract riders who would have chosen other modes (such as ; air, automobile, bus, etc.) had the HSR not been created. Identifying and measuring the actual ability of HSR to effect modal shift ; is therefore critical. This report examines the evidence concerning HSR and modal shift in both secondary analyses of previous ; studies and in newer studies that use primarily original data. The studies that were reviewed comprise a large variety of HSR ; systems, time periods, data sources, and means of analysis. ; Although this literature is still in a formative stage, with key pieces of data and analysis still unavailable, the existing research ; is quite clear that HSR is extremely competitive with other modes. This finding emerges from essentially every study examined ; for this report and is reflected in outcomes from the HSR systems of Europe and Asia, with limited information from the US. ; The convergence of these multiple sources and analytic frameworks on similar results provides a reasonably secure basis for ; inferring that new HSR systems placed in appropriate travel corridors and managed well are likely to result in significant amounts ; of modal shift. Essentially, the literature affirms that HSR has resulted in significant-to-dramatic mode shifts where it has been ; systematically evaluated. ; The most extensive and convincing information concerns HSR versus airline service. In both Europe and Asia, air service for ; specific routes was reduced, or even curtailed altogether, following coverage of the same routes by HSR. When HSR is faster ; from beginning to end of a trip, HSR gains market share rapidly and decisively. HSR market share also grows when time to ; access and egress the system; fare cost versus that of other modes; service frequency, service quality, and number of transfers ; required are compared. ; The research concerning direct competition with automobiles, expresses buses, and other modes is much less highly developed, ; but also points to HSR service as effectively winning market share. Although this study does not include analysis of new data that ; would address the California HSR system, the findings from the research reviewed here are highly consistent with the expectation ; that the planned HSR system is well positioned to achieve comparable modal shift.
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• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  DTRT12-G-UTC21
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/27451/dot_27451_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 514.58 KB]
• Collection(s):
  University Transportation Centers ; US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:46005af983220bed4760b9e510ec7038193c83b98cd6b7eb06abbb8c4e52f9cc