United States Department of Transportation
i
The development of local calibration factors for implementing the highway safety manual in Maryland.
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2014-03-01
[PDF-7.82 MB]
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Abstract:The goal of the study was to determine local calibration factors (LCFs) to adjust predicted motor
vehicle traffic crashes for the Maryland-specific application of the Highway Safety Manual
(HSM). Since HSM predictive models were developed using data from states other than
Maryland, the predictive models should be calibrated. LCFs for all 18 facility types were
calculated using Maryland data. After data collection and compilation, samples were drawn based
on 90% confidence level, which increased the overall sample size. After the comparison between
HSM default crash proportion and Maryland specific data, the use of the Maryland data was
suggested. In general, LCFs for all facilities were less than 1.0, implying Maryland had fewer
crashes than predicted crashes estimated by HSM crash prediction methodology. Especially,
LCFs for intersections were extremely low. Due to potential issues with unreported minor and
property damage only crashes, the authors recommend using LCFs for fatal and injuries crashes
where available. The report concludes with a discussion on data limitation, thoughts about HSM
sampling requirement, and suggestions for future research. It should be noted that this study only
considered roadways maintained by SHA and Baltimore City was not part of this study.
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