United States Department of Transportation
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A Study on the Impact of Parameter Uncertainty on the Emission-Based Ranking of Transportation Projects
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2014-01-01
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[PDF-990.02 KB]
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TRIS Online Accession Number:01514634
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:With the growing concern with air quality levels and, hence, the livability of urban regions in the nation, it has become increasingly common to incorporate vehicular emission considerations in the ranking of transportation projects. Network assignment methods have proven invaluable in the characterization of system level emissions. The estimation of these regional air quality impacts has been typically based on the assumption of determinism. That is, model parameters in network assignment methods are typically assumed to be known with complete certainty. In this research, the assumption of determinism is relaxed and the impact of trip table/ demand uncertainty and road capacity uncertainty is examined. In addition to emissions as the project selection criterion, the classical total system travel time measure is also considered. Based on extensive simulations, the authors' results indicate that the impact of uncertainty is limited. However, at the same time, it is to be emphasized that the findings in this study are preliminary in nature and might not necessarily generalize to other settings than the ones considered in this report.
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