Estimating the economic impacts of disruptions to intermodal freight systems traffic.
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Estimating the economic impacts of disruptions to intermodal freight systems traffic.

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    • NTL Classification:
      NTL-FREIGHT-Freight Economics and Finance
    • Abstract:
      The identification and quantification of the economic and social impacts of disruptions is fundamental for sound transportation policy decisions. The impacts due to disruptions on goods movement are significant. Disruptions in their various forms cause direct short/long term impacts that include fatalities, infrastructure destruction and economic loss. Immediate economic impacts result from the inability of travelers and businesses to adapt to changed circumstances after a disruption. Quantifying the economic impact of different facilities on the transportation network has the potential to dramatically strengthen transportation systems and develop sound policies for network recovery and mitigation. To quantify the economic impacts, one has to clearly capture the consequences of a disruption which is usually a challenging task (Rose, 2009). More recently, these issues have surfaced to the forefront with the increasing realization about the interdependence of the national and global transportation supply chains, where one transportation network is an integral part of a “flat” global transportation network. Various completed and ongoing studies explored this topic from different perspectives (e.g. Series of reports NCHRP 525); however these studies fail to arrive at comprehensive modeling approaches that quantify the complex relationship between goods movement and economic activity. While few models have quantified the “direct” impacts such as infrastructure damage and loss of travel time (Ukkusuri and Yushimito, 2008) there is relatively little understanding of “indirect” impacts which cause the multiplier effect due to reduction in jobs, property values etc in the long term. The ability to estimate the short/long term economic impacts using quantitative methodologies and simulation tools requires the integration of engineering, economic and policy frameworks. Since transportation disruptions have medium and long-run impacts on local, regional and national economies, there is a significant need that warrants their quantification using state of the art tools.
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