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Predicting the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles using multiday GPS data.
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  • Abstract:
    "Detailed GPS data for a year’s worth of travel by 255 households from the Seattle area were used to

    investigate how plug-in electric vehicle types may affect adoption rates and use levels. The results suggest

    that a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) with 100 miles of range should meet the needs of 50% of one-vehicle

    households and 80% of multiple-vehicle households, if those households fully charge their BEVs just once a

    day and are willing to use a different vehicle or mode of transport just 4 days a year or less (to serve daily

    travel distances above 100 miles). Moreover, the average one-vehicle household in the Seattle region relies

    on its vehicle for 23 miles per day and should be able to electrify close to 80% of its miles using a plug-in

    hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with 40-mile all-electric-range. Households owning two or more vehicles can

    electrify 50 to 70% of their household miles using a PHEV40, depending on how they assign the vehicle

    across their drivers each day. Cost comparisons between the average single-vehicle household owning a

    Chevrolet Cruze (regular gasoline vehicle) versus a Chevrolet Volt PHEV suggest that when gas prices are

    $3.50 per gallon and electricity rates at the U.S. average of 11.2 ct per kWh, the Volt will save the household

    $535 per year in operating costs. Similarly, the Toyota Prius PHEV, when compared to the Toyota Corolla,

    will provide an annual savings of $538 per year."

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