Effect of climate change on crop production patterns with implications to transport flows and inland waterways.
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2011-12-01
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Edition:Final report; Feb. 2010-Oct. 2011.
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Abstract:This project analyzed the demand for transportation capacity and changes in transportation flows on
inland waterways due to shifts in crop production patterns induced by climate change. Shifts in the crop
production mix have been observed in recent years in response to changing climate. The primary
exhibited trend is that of a northward shift resulting, for example, in increased corn production in
historically wheat-producing regions. Given differences in the typical destinations and volumes of corn
and wheat shipments, such changes have the potential to alter the pattern, composition and seasonality
of grain flows toward and along the Mississippi River. As a result, bulk cargo traffic patterns,
transportation flows, and demand for transportation capacity and facilities in the Mississippi River basin
may change dramatically in the near future. The project analyzed these changes using a U.S. agricultural
sector model and an international grain transportation model. The former predicts shifts in production
patterns due to climate change, while the latter analyzes the effect of predicted production shifts on
transportation flows. The results will help planners in forecasting demand for Mississippi River transport
facilities and capacity.
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