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Impact of high oil prices on freight transportation : modal shift potential in five corridors, executive summary.
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2008-10-01
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Edition:Executive summary.
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Abstract:MAJOR FINDINGS
• According to U.S. and international forecasts, oil prices could range between a low of $60 to a
high of $160 per barrel through 2020 (in constant 2008 dollars), but the Central Scenario
indicates that oil prices could stabilize at around $90 per barrel.
• The more fuel-efficient rail and water modes are far less affected by fuel price increases than
trucking, particularly over longer shipping distances and where Roll-On/Roll-Off vessels, which
have significantly lower fixed intermodal drayage and port costs, can be used.
• Because the demand for rail/truck intermodal services is increasing, available rail capacity is
being depleted, giving the railroads the ability to increase prices and making existing and
potential water services even more attractive.
• Analysis of five major U.S. freight corridors that serve over 95 percent of the U.S. population –
Great Lakes (and St. Lawrence Seaway), Gulf Coast, Mississippi River, East Coast, and West
Coast – indicates that domestic waterborne containerized traffic has the potential to increase by a
factor of 2 to 3 as diesel fuel prices increase from $2 up to $7 per gallon.
• The Great Lakes, Mississippi River, and Gulf Coast freight corridors (which can divert traffic from
truck and, to a lesser extent, from rail transportation) generate sufficient domestic traffic volume to
initiate new water services.
• Along both the East and West Coast, a portion of the huge and growing volume of U.S.
international trade now distributed inland through gateway Atlantic and Pacific seaports can be
moved by new coastal feeder services.
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