United States Department of Transportation
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Advanced decision modeling for real time variable tolling : development and testing of a data collection platform.
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2012-06-01
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[PDF-1.59 MB]
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NTL Classification:NTL-HIGHWAY/ROAD TRANSPORTATION-HIGHWAY/ROAD TRANSPORTATION;NTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-PLANNING AND POLICY;
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Abstract:Our current ability to forecast demand on tolled facilities has not kept pace with advances in decision sciences and
technological innovation. The current forecasting methods suffer from lack of descriptive power of actual behavior because
of the simplifications used in current economic decision models. These simplifications are in part due to the historical
limitations on data collection. Today, we are seeing advances in the data collection technology that captures naturalistic
behavior and this study is seeking to develop and test such technology. This will be the first phase of a naturalistic driving
study on the topic of variable road tolling and decision making.
This investigation extends the state of knowledge of decision modeling under risk and ambiguity by developing a
mobile data collection platform for the capturing of naturalistic choice outcomes, associated environmental states, decision
makers’ self-articulated perceptions of risk and assessments of ambiguity, and socio-economic attributes. This
software/hardware development is the first step in advancing our ability to forecast future revenue sources in
transportation. The data collection platform will be used in an extending study and will allow the study team to obtain
insights for developing, testing and implementing new behavioral models that explicitly describe how we use imprecise
information—in this case, ambiguous information signaled by variable toll lane charges—that are superior to those
obtained to date.
To support the empirical observations of driver choice of diverting to HOT or non-HOT lanes in real-time, this
study documents the development and testing of an in-vehicle perception acquisition device. The device is based on smartphone
technology and its software is designed using the latest IOS release. Drivers will be able to upload the software
application onto their existing smartphone or tablet. The widespread acceptance and use of smartphones and tablets allows
the collection and transmission of decision data collected in real-time without installing or altering the drivers’ vehicles in
any manner. This both increases the convenience—and perhaps the use of the application—and reduces the cost of data
collection.
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