Flood frequency analysis using optimization techniques : final report.
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1992-10-01
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Alternative Title:Flood frequency analysis using optimization techniques
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Abstract:this study consists of three parts. In the first part, a comprehensive investigation was made to find an improved estimation method for the log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution by using optimization techniques. Ninety sets of observed Louisiana flood data and 690 sets of Monte Carlo simulated LP3 data were used for the study. Based on the performance of 20 alternative optimization methods, a superior estimation method (named MALS), was found. as compared with the method of moments (MOM), the MALS method reduced the standard root mean square error (RMSE) by eight percent and the standard bias (BIAS) by 47 percent for the Monte Carlo simulated data. For the observed flood data, the MALS method reduced the relative root average square error (RRASE) by 13.5 percent and the relative average bias (RAB) by 46 percent as compared with MOM.
In the second part of the study, the IRO procedure was extended to sites where no flood records were available. Limited verification showed that the extended procedure was reasonably accurate for watersheds of smaller than 1000 square miles.
Flood quantiles at the return periods of 2, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years were calculated by the LP3/MALS and by the GEV/IRO at the 90 stream gauge sites. A procedure for estimating flood quantiles at ungauged sites is outlined with updated regional flood quantiles.
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