Evaluation of the Oregon DMV driver improvement program.
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2007-04-01
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Edition:Final report.
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Abstract:This report provides an evaluation of the Oregon Department of Transportation-Driver and Motor Vehicle ; (DMV) Services Driver Improvement Program (DIP), which was substantially changed in 2002. Prior to 2002, ; the DIP was organized around four progressive steps involving advisory letters, warning letters, probation, and ; suspension. The current program is organized around two steps: restriction and suspension. The timeline to ; the steps in the current program have also been shortened. To evaluate the current program, driver records of ; persons suspended between January and July of 2004 were examined in relation to a sample of Oregon’s ; driving population. The incidence of crashes and traffic offense convictions of DIP subjects in the 18-month ; period prior to suspension was compared to the incidence of these events among the driving population. A ; similar comparison was also made for the 18-month period following suspension. A substantial reduction in ; the relative incidence of crashes and convictions among DIP subjects following suspension was observed. ; This finding is subject to the effects of regression-to-the-mean. An approximation of regression-to-the-mean ; effects was made based on prior evaluations of Oregon’s DIP that employed a true experimental design. A ; regression analysis was also undertaken using driver record information from the period prior to suspension to ; estimate the likelihood of post-suspension crash and traffic offense conviction involvement. The estimated ; likelihood of post-suspension crash involvement was significantly affected by the frequency of pre-suspension ; crashes, but not by the frequency of pre-suspension convictions. Conversely, the estimated likelihood of postsuspension ; convictions was significantly affected by the frequency of pre-suspension convictions, but not by ; the frequency of pre-suspension crashes. Two changes in the DIP are suggested in the concluding section of ; the report. The first change involves re-instituting warning letters, given their demonstrated cost effectiveness ; in the driver improvement literature. The second change involves the assignment of greater weight to crashes ; in triggering license actions, based on the regression findings.
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Main Document Checksum:urn:sha-512:05820b6b17e352209c9e25e26b07252e237aa3e956f9d6fead0dc8ec4cef4254d00de58743eda14eee4a0668d05ec13790021c1093f8de5cb8c5b98681a0bbca