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Statistical Analyses of Commercial Vehicle Accident Factors. Volume 1 Part 1
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1978-02-01
[PDF-18.39 MB]
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Edition:Final report
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Abstract:Procedures for conducting statistical analyses of commercial vehicle accidents have been established and initially applied. A file of some 3,000 California Highway Patrol accident reports from two areas of California during a period of about one year in 1975-76 provides the data base for the application. Computer implementation and evaluation of the quality of the data file were first accomplished. Then an exhaustive univariate analysis of the data was conducted to describe the file in detail. Selected sets of dependent and independent variables were then subjected to linear regression analysis. The resulting linear models of the interactions of the variables were found to be unsatisfactory. More complex models of the interactions were then constructed with contingency table analysis methods, and acceptable log-linear models to explain these interactions were successfully established. Vehicle exposure was introduced into one of these analyses to assess its impact on the set of significant interactions; it was indeed found to be important. The estimation of exposure was carried out by two independent methods: a "direct" procedure based on a series of linear extrapolations of basic State of California commercial vehicle traffic data, and an "induced" estimation procedure essentially employing only data in the accident reports. While necessarily limited in scope, certain. initial accident causation and countermeasure implications were established from these analyses. These related to multi-unit jackknife and brakes-related accidents and accident severity. Finally, the effect of considering economic costs of accidents instead of only the frequency of their occurrence was briefly investigated. /Abstract from report summary page/
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