An Assessment of the Risks Presented by Carbon Fiber Composites Released from Motor Vehicle Fires

Details

• Creators:
  Rosenfield, Donald B. ; Fiksel, Joseph ; Kalelkar, Ashok S.
• Corporate Creators:
  Arthur D. Little, Inc.
• Corporate Contributors:
  John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Fiber composites
  • Carbon fibers
  • Composite materials
  • Fires
  • Hazards
  • Motor vehicles
  • Poisson distributions
  • Maximum likelihood method
  • Estimates
  • Costs
  More +
• Publication/ Report Number:
  DOT-TSC-RSPA-80-4 ; NASA-CR-159207
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Corporate Publisher:
  United States. Dept. of Transportation. Research and Special Programs Administration ; United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• Abstract:
  A risk assessment was conducted to estimate the potential losses through 1993 due to the usage of carbon fiber (CF) composites in U.S. motor vehicles, including automobiles and trucks. A methodology was developed to compute estimated dollar losses by county and equipment type, using a Poisson model for the incidence of equipment failures. This approach incorporated data on the geographic distribution of potentially vulnerable facilities, as well as the mean CF exposure levels at which various equipment would fail. The results were then statistically aggregated to produce a national risk profile for estimated annual losses in 1993. The expected loss was $5,567 per year (1977 dollars), and the likelihood of exceeding $500,000 in annual losses was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand. The sensitivity of these results to major input parameters was investigated, and it was found that under extreme worst-case assumptions the annual loss would increase to about $1.5 million.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  NAS1-15380
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/10568/dot_10568_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.95 MB]
• Collection(s):
  Volpe Center
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:ee2d2c759d5908d4b3ffec7b74cf3aaf7520334ee14ea402b497e90f9879cdde