United States Department of Transportation
i
Alternative jet fuel scenario analysis report
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2012-11-30
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[PDF-3.13 MB]
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Abstract:This analysis presents a “bottom up” projection of the potential production of alternative aviation (jet) fuels in North America (United States, Canada, and Mexico) and the European Union in the next decade. The analysis is based on available plans from individual companies and considers existing and emerging fuel production technologies. The analysis also forecasts how alternative fuels might contribute to greenhouse gas goals. Based on a review of fuel production companies’ stated plans to produce jet fuel, the study incorporated company-specific data into seven scenarios varying alternative jet fuel production and expansion assumptions. This study supports the use of advanced alternative fuels as one important component of achieving emissions and environmental targets, although other additional measures and/or new technologies may also be required. The analysis suggests that the FAA goal of 1 billion gallons of alternative jet fuel use by U.S. aviation in 2018 is achievable. A combination of the most optimistic demand forecasts and the “product switch” production scenarios leads to North American aviation greenhouse gas emissions leveling off or decreasing between years by 2020. For the limited scenarios considered, additional measures would be needed to return to 2005 emissions levels in North America in 2020. In the European analysis, leveling of GHG emissions by 2020 only occurs in cases where ethanol and/or biodiesel producers switch to producing some jet fuel. As this “bottom up” projection could not account for all potential alternative fuel producers (either because public data were not available or because these companies were unknown to the authors), the results presented should be viewed as one possible range of future production levels that could occur in North America and Europe. It does not consider the amount of alternative fuels that could be produced from all potentially available feedstocks (i.e., technical potential) which would be much greater. Further, production outside of North America and Europe was not included in the analysis so actual demand for alternative jet fuels in North America and Europe could be met with alternative fuels produced outside the region. Finally, the development of new technologies, new market conditions, new participants, and improved processes for known technologies could all lead to production levels higher than shown in this analysis. In fact the technical potential of biofuels production greatly exceeds projected demand. Likewise, policies and economic conditions could lead to lower, or nonexistent production levels.
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