United States Department of Transportation
i
Statistical Estimation of Rollover Risk
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1989-08-01
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[PDF-2.53 MB]
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Edition:Final Report March 1988 - May 1989
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Abstract:This report describes the results of a statistical analysis to determine the
probability of a rollover in a single vehicle accident. Over 39,000 accidents,
which included 4910 rollovers in the states of Texas, Maryland, and Washington were
examined for 40 vehicle make/models using logistic regression analyses.
Mathematical models were developed that related vehicle factors such as wheelbase
and stability factor, (one-half the track width divided by the center of gravity
height) and accident factors, (driver and the environmental variables), to rollover
probability.
It was found that at the accident level (predicting rollover versus nonrollover)
the vehicle stability factor and whether the accident occurred on an urban or rural
road are important predictors of rollover probability. At the vehicle make/model
level (comparison of predicted and actual rollover rates for the 40 make/models),
the index of agreement (r2) exceeded 0.90 with the stability factor in the
regression model. Without the stability factor, the r2 dropped to 0.53 indicating
the importance of this factor. Other factors added little to predicting rollover
at the make/model level.
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