Construction Cost Inflation Model

Details

• Creators:
  Colsch, Nick
• Corporate Creators:
  Laramie County Community College. Center for Business and Economic Analysis
• Corporate Contributors:
  Wyoming. Department of Transportation. Research Center
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Construction Projects Cost Estimating Forecasting Inflation
• Publication/ Report Number:
  WY-25032F
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States ; Wyoming
• Edition:
  Final Report
• Corporate Publisher:
  Wyoming. Department of Transportation
• Abstract:
  Federal legislation requires state departments of transportation to consider and apply inflation to the costs of transportation projects. However, there is no guidance on how inflation should be calculated. Previous research on this topic primarily focused on developing construction cost indexes. Previous methods of prediction included neural networks and statistical modeling. We used producer price indexes from the Federal Reserve Economic Data to calculate inflation rates and built auto-regressive models to predict inflation for nine cost categories: Asphalt, Bridge Metal, Concrete, Excavation, Gravel, Liquid Asphalt, Reinforcing Steel, Structural Steel, and Non-Supervisor Construction Wages. The models were not very good predictors of 2024 inflation by category. However, when the inflation rates were averaged, the predicted inflation rate for materials outperformed 2024 estimations for the previous methods used by the Wyoming Department of Transportation.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  RS 03223
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:f6246542250bca25af6fcf3419df9a70e727495d0fd22b98a765746dd3550cc0b3825f88f4c038e1f1c13561d04855f48a4f970f62b7e43fe9a861b53a6f4581
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/84978/dot_84978_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.28 MB ]