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Estimating Demand for Land Uses and Transportation Facilities with Population Pyramids
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1982-05-01
[PDF-1.13 MB]
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Edition:Interim Report: September 1976 - May 1982
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Abstract:The age of a population is observed to be influential in how land is used. Various land uses attract different volumes of traffic. With population pyramids, the population of the age groups can be predicted, and it follows that future land requirements by type of use can be estimated. These land use estimates can, in turn, be used to predict the amount of transportation facilities needed to meet the traffic volumes attracted. Two demand models are formulated to study the land use and the transportation need. The demand model for land in different uses consists of two parts. First, two equations, one for single-unit housing and the other for multiple-unit housing, are used to relate residential land use to the three identified age groups: the young (15-19), the middle-aged (20-64) and the old (55 years and over) groups. Elasticities resulting enable officials to estimate the total percentage change in residential use. Second, the model assumes that the percentage distribution of land uses to total developed area remains unchanged over the study period. Therefore, the percentage change in residential use estimated can be assigned to other land equations, relating automobile vehicle-miles and transit vehicle-miles separately to residential and commercial uses. The estimation results indicate that the middle-aged group is significantly responsive to single-unit housing, with an elasticity of 0.8802, while the young and the old groups to multiple-unit housing with elasticities of 0.9909 and 0.7138, respectively. Commercial land use is found to be significantly responsive to automobile vehicle-miles, while residential land use as represented by the number of housing units without automobiles to be responsive to transit vehicle-miles.
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