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The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Transit in the San Francisco Bay Area [Summary]
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2025-04-01
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[PDF-259.57 KB]
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Edition:Research Brief
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Abstract:This report presents the findings from our study for the California State Assembly Transportation Committee on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Bay Area Transit. The study consisted of a review of the literature on the effects of the pandemic on transit in the US, a detailed look at changes in ridership and economics for Bay Area transit agencies, comparisons of Bay Area transit ridership changes to those in similar US metropolitan areas, and analysis of possible remedies to restore the financial health of Bay Area transit agencies. Bay Area transit ridership has recovered somewhat from the depths of the pandemic, but remains below pre-pandemic levels: bus ridership is currently 20 percent lower and rail ridership is 60 percent lower than before 2020. Much of the pre-pandemic transit ridership, especially on rail, was from professional and technical workers; many of these have continued to work at home, even after the official end of the pandemic. Federal funding provided short-term operating funding relief transit, but several agencies—BART, SFMTA, and Caltrain in particular—face severe funding shortfalls beginning in fiscal year 2026. Part of the shortfalls could be made up through a combination of fare increases and service reductions, but high fixed operating costs make it impossible for these agencies to remain viable without additional outside funding. The feasible funding sources from a financial standpoint are (1) a surcharge to bridge tolls, (2) an additional sales tax, or (3) a combination of toll surcharges and sales taxes.
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