United States Department of Transportation
i
Assessing the Concepts of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty for FAA Aircraft Seat Certification
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2024-09-01
[PDF-6.58 MB]
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Abstract:This report synthesizes a process for Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) based on lessons learned from the United States (US) Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the US Nuclear Weapons Community, and the emerging Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) communities. BEPU supports Certification by Analysis (CbA). BEPU is characterized by an unbiased and objective accounting of all dominant contributors to the uncertainty that informs regulatory decisions. Predictions for untested designs must be bias-corrected for errors in the simulation computational model and model form, and uncertainties in both must be quantified to support regulatory decisions. The process is demonstrated for emergency landing conditions with an application to aircraft seat certification for lumbar injuries. The demonstration includes the steps necessary for certification, identifies what testing is needed, and shows how the model can be accepted. The report discusses four regulatory options for dealing with uncertainties that balance risk tolerance with the maturity of assessment capabilities.
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