United States Department of Transportation
i
A Preliminary Evidence-Based Approach for Forecasting Cut Slope Deterioration
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2024-09-01
[PDF-3.84 MB]
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:Constructed rock slopes may physically deteriorate over time, which can be represented with increasing rockfall frequency. Physical deterioration leads to performance deterioration, which corresponds to changes in slope risk through time. Thus, forecasting physical slope deterioration and therefore slope performance deterioration is critical to the long-term decision making of transportation agencies. However, deterioration modeling of cut slopes is not yet well-established. Therefore, this research proposes a new framework for physical deterioration modeling of cut slopes using conceptual models that predict how hazard components of a slope may change through time. Conceptual models were developed for ditch effectiveness deterioration and rockfall frequency increases through time due to weathering since excavation of the cut slope, scaling, and rock bolting. The conceptual models may be directly incorporated into the pre-existing slope risk assessment framework developed for the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) by BGC Engineering. Since rockfall frequency is a key input for the conceptual models, magnitude-cumulative frequency (MCF) distributions were created for seven Colorado cut slopes monitored with remote sensing. Since rockfall inventories may not be available for all slopes, a practical MCF curve estimation method developed by BGC Engineering was tested on these slopes. The estimation method generally produces MCF curves that are within one to two orders of magnitude of the remote sensing-based MCF curves. Slope performance deterioration over time was evaluated using a dataset from the Washington Department of Transportation, which demonstrated that physical deterioration and slope performance deterioration do not consistently occur for slopes greater than 20 years old. Finally, physical slope deterioration was related to slope performance deterioration using the CDOT slope risk assessment framework. The proposed conceptual models generally predict lower performance deterioration compared to the current CDOT hazard deterioration models.
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