Time-to-Failure Prediction of Fine-Grained Soil Slopes Subject to Weather-Driven Deterioration
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2024-08-01
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By Morsy, Amr M
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Corporate Contributors:State of California SB1 2017/2018, Trustees of the California State University Sponsored Programs Administration ; United States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) Program ; United States. Department of Transportation. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology
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Abstract:Embankments have been widely used in the construction of transportation and flood defense infrastructure. Embankments constructed from clays experience a suite of weather-driven deterioration processes that lead to a progressive loss of hydromechanical performance, causing potentially severe and costly consequences. This study aimed to predict the time to failure of aging, deteriorating clay embankments supporting transportation infrastructure. A multi-phase numerical modeling approach was developed to replicate the long-term, weather-driven, hydromechanical behavior of clay embankments. This model simulated the behavior of a number of well-documented embankment failure case studies that had sufficient data to derive the necessary soil properties and climate records. Numerical models were developed for a total of 34 case studies, and numerical simulations were performed to predict their time to failure. Predictions compared well with the actual times to failure reported for the simulated case studies. Overall, the numerical modeling approach proved efficient in developing deterioration models that could improve infrastructure asset management. Practical recommendations are provided based on the findings of this study.
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