How Will California’s Electric Vehicle Policy Impact State-Generated Transportation Revenues? Projecting Scenarios through 2040
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2024-03-01
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Corporate Contributors:State of California SB1 2017/2018, Trustees of the California State University Sponsored Programs Administration ; United States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) Program ; United States. Department of Transportation. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology
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DOI:https://doi.org/10.31979/mti.2024.2312; https://doi.org/10.31979/mti.2024.2312.ds
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:California faces unprecedented uncertainty about how much revenue the state will raise from a package of taxes on motor fuels and annual registration fees on light-duty vehicles that was established in 2017 by Senate Bill 1 (SB 1). The SB 1 taxes are by far the largest source of revenue that the State of California generates to support maintenance, operations, and improvements for state highways, and the funds also contribute substantially to local transportation and public transit budgets. To help policymakers navigate the uncertainty about future SB 1 transportation revenue, this study used spreadsheet models to project revenue from the SB 1 taxes through 2040 under a set of eight scenarios that consider a wide range of possible futures. The scenarios consider changes to revenue that could arise from implementation of California’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) regulations, as well as potential changes in driving costs, population size, vehicle ownership rates, and trucking industry operations.
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