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Understanding the Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Long-Distance Passenger and Freight Travel in Texas: Final Report
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2022-08-01
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Edition:September 2020 – August 2022
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Abstract:In efforts to predict the long-distance travel impacts (for passengers and freight) of self-driving cars and trucks across Texas and the US, researchers estimated models for long-distance domestic passenger and freight trips before and after the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and applied the passenger models to a 10%synthetic US population (12.1M households and 28.1M individuals across 73,056census tracts). To generate disaggregated passenger trips, travel demand models—including trip frequency, season, purpose, party size, mode choice, and destination choice models—and a vehicle ownership model were estimated. Different datasets, including a 2021 long-distance passenger AV survey designed in this study, the 2016/17 National Household Travel Survey, and EPA Smart Location and FHWA rJourney datasets, were used for model estimation. Assuming a $3,500 technology cost premium (e.g. in year 2040), total person-miles traveled per capita for existing long-distance trips are estimated to rise 35% (from 280 to 379 miles per month). For freight-travel impacts, a four-step travel demand modeling process was used for trip generation and distribution, mode choice, and traffic assignment across human-driven trucks, automated trucks (ATrucks), rail, and intermodal rail. When ATruck shipping costs drop to half that of human-driven trucks, truck mode share is predicted to increase by4.2% (from 57.0% to 61.2%), with a 6.0% increase in ton-miles transported by truck. Such cost reductions are expected to increase Texas trucks’ mode splits by over 10% on commodities like food, paper, and primary metal.
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[PDF-15.43 MB]
