United States Department of Transportation
i
System Dynamics Models of Automated Vehicle Impacts
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2023-01-31
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[PDF-1.86 MB]
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:The many potentially transformative changes to the transportation system, such as automated vehicles, electric vehicle adoption, increased telework, and new travel modes, are creating increasing uncertainties for the future. These uncertainties call for fast, flexible models. System dynamics (SD) is emerging as a research modeling focus area for changes to the transportation system that may have transformative impacts, including those from vehicles using automated driving systems (ADS). System dynamics provides both qualitative methods to bring diverse stakeholders to a common understanding of the problem, and quantitative methods for modeling complex systems that consider feedback effects and changes over time. Qualitative methods include those for representing systems, such as causal loop diagrams, and for collecting information to determine that representation, such as working with stakeholders via group model building techniques. This project developed causal loop diagrams for several “building blocks” (archetypes) that affect how automated vehicles might be used. These building blocks include new product adoption, sustainability of business model, mode choice, scale effects, congestion and residential relocation.
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