This report "Highway Travel Forecasts" is the result of a Federal Highway Administration study to reevaluate national highway travel forecasts in light of such factors as declining birth rates, possible saturation of vehicle ownership, and fuel constraints. Results indicate that highway travel is expected to increase at an annual compound rate of 2 to 3 percent per year to 1990 as compared to an average annual growth of 4.6 percent for the last 20 years. The travel projections are based on anticipated increases in population, licensed drivers, vehicles, and personal income. The reduced growth rate in travel would have occurred even without the fuel shortage due to the decreasing rate of persons entering the driving age population. This has resulted from the decline in births since the late 1950's. Even with fairly severe constraints on fuel the travel projections appear reasonable, assuming continued increases in the fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet using presently available technology. Although this was a national assessment, review and application of these analyses at the State and local level are encouraged. Comments will be useful in updating the report.
United States. Federal Highway Administration. Office of Highway Policy Information
2017-05-01
Abstract:
FHWA has constructed a national vehicle miles traveled (VMT) forecasting model where future VMT growth rates can be estimated for three major economic...
United States. Federal Highway Administration. Office of Highway Policy Information
2018-05-01
Abstract:
FHWA has constructed a national vehicle miles traveled (VMT) forecasting model where future VMT growth rates can be estimated for three major economic...
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United States Department of Transportation
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