United States Department of Transportation
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National Impacts of E-Commerce Growth: Development of a Spatial Demand Based Tool [Supporting Dataset]
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2022-08-18
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By Xiao, Ivan
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Abstract:This project aims to study the impacts of e-commerce on shopping behaviors and related externalities. The objectives are divided into five major tasks in this project. Methods used include Weighted Multinomial Logit (WMNL) models, time series forecasting, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. The American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) databases are used for identifying the independent and dependent variables for behavioral modeling. At the same time, we collected all MSA population data from the U.S. Census Bureau and combined the shares of each variable from ATUS to generate a synthesized population, which serves as input into the MC simulation framework together with the behavioral model. This simulation framework includes the generation of shopping travel parameters and the calculation of negative externalities. We do this to estimate e-commerce demand and impacts every decade until 2050. The results and analyses provide information that supports the generation of shopping travel and the estimations of a series of negative externalities using MC simulation, which includes shopping travel parameters, last-mile delivery parameters, and emission rate per person. For different parameters, a unique probability distribution or a regression relation is obtained for different MSAs, and this distribution is fed into the subsequent MC simulation. Finally, we simulated shopping behaviors for synthesized populations (until 2050) and to estimate the expected negative externalities. The MC simulation generates aggregate average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and emissions (negative externalities) for different shopping activities in the planning years and different MSAs. The total size of the described zip file is 512 MB. Files with the .xlsx extension are Microsoft Excel spreadsheet files. These can be opened in Excel or open-source spreadsheet programs. Text files can be view in notepad or any document reading software. The .csv, Comma Separated Value, file is a simple format that is designed for a database table and supported by many applications. The .csv file is often used for moving tabular data between two different computer programs, due to its open format. Any text editor or spreadsheet program will open .csv files. DS_Store files can be opened using programs such as Notepad. The following file types are standard for GIS mapping software: CPG, DBF, PRJ, SHP, SHX. Because the files pertain to map layers and images, they are best viewed using the Kingdom: Seismic and Geological Interpretation software that the team used or with any open source 2D and 3D mapping software.
Related software can be accessed at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7005237
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Content Notes:National Transportation Library (NTL) Curation Note: As this dataset is preserved in a repository outside U.S. DOT control, as allowed by the U.S. DOT's Public Access Plan (https://doi.org/10.21949/1503647) Section 7.4.2 Data, the NTL staff has performed NO additional curation actions on this dataset. The current level of dataset documentation is the responsibility of the dataset creator. NTL staff last accessed this dataset at its repository URL on 2022-11-11. If, in the future, you have trouble accessing this dataset at the host repository, please email NTLDataCurator@dot.gov describing your problem. NTL staff will do its best to assist you at that time.
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