Steering California's Transportation Future: A Report on Possible Scenarios and Recommendations

Gahbauer, John; Matute, Juan; Wasserman, Jacob L; Rios, Alejandra; Taylor, Brian D.; University of California, Los Angeles. Institute of Transportation Studies

doi:10.17610/t6m89t

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ROSA P serves as an archival repository of USDOT-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by USDOT or funded partners. As a repository, ROSA P retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Steering California's Transportation Future: A Report on Possible Scenarios and Recommendations

2022-08-01
By Gahbauer, John ; Matute, Juan ; Wasserman, Jacob L ; ...

English

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Details:

Creators:

Gahbauer, John ; Matute, Juan ; Wasserman, Jacob L ; Rios, Alejandra ; Taylor, Brian D.

Gahbauer, John ; Matute, Juan ; Wasserman, Jacob L ; Rios, Alejandra ; Taylor, Brian D. Less -
Corporate Creators:

University of California, Los Angeles. Institute of Transportation Studies
Subject/TRT Terms:

[+]

Delphi Method Forecasting Future Ground Transportation Land Use Planning
Publication/ Report Number:

UC-ITS-RIMI-4B-03
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17610/t6m89t
Resource Type:

Tech Report
Geographical Coverage:

California ; United States

California ; United States Less -
Edition:

Final report (June 2021 – August 2022)
Corporate Publisher:

University of California, Los Angeles. Institute of Transportation Studies
Abstract:

To investigate possible future transportation and land use scenarios for California as well as their likely precipitating policies and potential consequences, we convened a panel of 18 experts and used a novel variation of the Delphi method to systematically explore four specific scenarios and probe the desirability and likelihood of each. The scenario that panel members collectively thought most desirable for California (one with diverse transportation options and higher-density development) was also the one they thought least likely to materialize by 2050. This report describes the findings of the three surveys and two meetings that our method entailed and summarizes some of the discussion among panelists. We include reflections on the salient but unexpected finding that panelists viewed trust in government as both critical to effecting the scenario they considered most desirable and also lacking to such an extent that pursuing that desirable outcome could cause unintended consequences or outright failure. Accordingly, we discuss possible implications and outline policy recommendations for improving both processes and conditions that can instill in California’s government more trust, without which a future of multimodal transportation and higher-density, mixed land uses is unlikely to succeed.
Format:

PDF
Funding:

UC-ITS-RIMI-4B
Collection(s):

US Transportation Collection
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:12a2051dd81163b9efe3259ee4e6d66e0f134eea013dc27b020de3c4d2ed0671
Download URL:

https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/64787/dot_64787_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF-1.06 MB]