United States Department of Transportation
i
Duality of circulation decay statistics and survival probability
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2010-09-01
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[PDF-432.90 KB]
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Abstract:Survival probability and circulation decay history have both been used for setting wake turbulence separation standards. Conceptually a strong correlation should exist between these two characterizations of the vortex behavior, however, the literature lacks a rigorous development in establishing this correlation. The objective of this current paper is to establish the clear linkage between survival probability and circulation decay, and illustrate how they can be mapped to one another depending on need. The impact of the study is twofold. Firstly, it provides a mean to infer circulation decay probabilistic bounds from survival probability curves, which is particularly useful in providing insight on circulation statistics at old wake ages where direct circulation measurements are often challenging. This is referred to as the reverse process. Second, in analyses that require survival probability such as encounter probability analysis, this survival probability can be inferred from known statistical decay curves. This will be referred to as the forward process.
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