United States Department of Transportation
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Comparison of Four-Step Versus Tour-Based Models in Predicting Travel Behavior Before and After Transportation System Changes: Results Interpretation and Recommendations.
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2011-02-01
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[PDF-1.78 MB]
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Abstract:The main objective of this study was to examine the performance of the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission’s (MORPC's) trip-based and tour-based frameworks in the context of three specific projects started and completed within the past 15 years in the Columbus metropolitan area. The three specific projects included (1) Polaris project, (2) Hilliard-Rome project, and (3) Spring-Sandusky interchange project. The performance evaluation of the trip-based and tour-based models was pursued at two levels. The first level corresponded to a region-level analysis (independent of specific projects) that compared selected model outputs from each of the trip-based and tour-based model systems with corresponding region-level observed data. The second level corresponded to a local-level analysis (specific to each of the three projects identified earlier) that compared the trip volume outputs on selected roadway links in and around the project region with corresponding link counts. For both the region-level and local-level analysis, the research team considered three years for analysis: 1990, 2000, and 2005. The results indicate that the tour-based model performed better overall than the trip-based model in the region-level analysis, while the predictive abilities from the trip and tour-based models were about equal in the local-level analysis. This project is a significant first step toward a better understanding of the tangible benefits of disaggregate tour-based modeling methods. But it would be imprudent to judge all model systems strictly on the results of this one project, since the transportation planning community has accumulated four decades of learning and experience on trip-based models while this particular tour-based model represents only one attempt, and one of the earliest, at implementing the tour-based or activity-based approach for practical use. Regardless, this project should serve as an important reference in the assessment of the potential practical benefits of disaggregate tour-based modeling approaches vis-à -vis aggregate trip-based methods.
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