United States Department of Transportation
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Development of a Mode Choice Model To Estimate Evacuation Transit Demand
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2019-10-01
[PDF-2.02 MB]
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Edition:Final Report March 2016 – February 2018
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Abstract:Since Hurricane Katrina, transit evacuation service has been seen to serve critical needs in affected cities and an increasing number of hurricanes have struck the east coast where more people rely on public transportation to evacuate. Thus, it is important to model mode choice in evacuation for a better estimation of evacuation transit demand. In this study, a joint mode and destination type choice model was estimated based on multiple post-storm behavioral surveys from the northeastern seaboard to the Gulf Coast. A nested logit model specification was used to estimate this joint choice model. The estimated model showed significant linkage between mode and destination type choice, which validated the choice of a nested structure for the model. Selected variables include both household and zonal characteristics, reflecting the attributes of alternatives, the characteristics of households, and the interactions between them. Most of the selected variables are significant at a confidence level of 95%. The estimated model was then applied in two different cases and the prediction errors are small. This study also estimated a new model in a situation that zonal data is only available at a relatively coarse level. The new estimated model was applied in three different cases. The prediction errors in all cases are larger in comparison with the previous applications, but they are still within an acceptable range. Overall, the findings of this study provide insight into the factors affecting mode and destination type choice of residents during hurricane evacuation. It also provides discussion on model transferability in applications with different characteristics.
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