United States Department of Transportation
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Use of Multisensor Data in Modeling Freeway Travel Time Reliability
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2019-09-01
[PDF-7.70 MB]
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Corporate Contributors:University of North Carolina at Charlotte. Center for Advanced Multimodal Mobility Solutions and Education ; United States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) Program ; United States. Department of Transportation. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology
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Edition:Final
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Abstract:Travel time reliability (TTR) is an important measure which has been widely used to represent the traffic conditions on freeways. Accurately modeling travel time reliability is very important for both transportation agencies and roadway users. Nowadays anonymous vehicle probe data have been greatly improved in both data coverage and data fidelity, and thus have become a reliable source for freeway travel time reliability analysis. However, in most cases, TTR data are analyzed at the segment level in the short-term, which may not be able to account for the TTR variability characteristics for the whole section in the long-term. The goal of this project is to develop a systematic approach to analyzing TTR of roadway segments along a corridor in the long-term. Specific objectives are to: 1) Select the most appropriate TTR measure; 2) Select typical segments based on historical TTR ratings; 3) Analyze the TTR of selected segments with the consideration of time of day, day of week, year and weather; and 4) Predict the TTR and compare it with the ground truth data. To achieve the goal, a comprehensive review of the literature is conducted and previous experience in determining factors influencing TTR is carefully examined and synthesized. A list of candidate TTR measures are also identified, evaluated and compared. The most appropriate TTR measure is selected for use in the TTR analysis. A number of influential factors are considered when analyzing TTR, which include, but are not limited to, time of day, day of week, year, segment location and weather. Finally, a simple linear regression model and a time-series model are developed and used to predict the TTR on a freeway corridor. This report focuses on the long-term travel time reliability analysis and intends to present data analysis results to help transportation planners make informed decisions.
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