United States Department of Transportation
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Developing Statewide Land Use Forecasting Model and Integrate with TDOT’s Statewide Travel Demand Model
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2021-10-01
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[PDF-11.86 MB]
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Edition:Final Report, August 2019 – December 2021
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Abstract:In this research, a statewide forecasting land-use model is presented. The land-use model is called the Large-Scale Land Use Model (LS-LUM)and can be integrated with Tennessee Statewide Travel Demand Model (TSMv3). Massive data collection was followed in this project and households ’information, employment information, housing information was collected at the Traffic Analysis Zones(TAZ)level. Moreover, parcel data for 94 counties were collected to be incorporated into the model. The model is developed for the base year 2010 and forecasts the demographic and socio-economic condition of the state of Tennessee from 2015 to 2050 with five years intervals. The developed model is validated using the back-casting approach and the goodness of fit and error measures are provided to show the accuracy of the model. To present the result of the model, an online dashboard is created providing forecasting results from 2015 to 2050 at TAZ and County levels. Moreover, the online dashboard presents a brief statistical analysis. The developed land-use model is integrated with TSMv3 and results are provided. Since the model incorporates house conditions (total houses and vacant houses) and land use conditions in each TAZ (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and developable lands), it provides a powerful tool for policy analysis. A software is developed for running the model using MATLAB Compiler Runtime, which enables sharing the model with other parties.
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