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Young Driver Crashes in Louisiana: Understanding the Contributing Factors to Decrease the Numbers
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2021-10-01
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[PDF-5.88 MB]
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Edition:Final Report, August 2019 – June 2021
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Abstract:Despite the early adoption of Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) program, teens and young adults in Louisiana continued to experience crashes at higher rates and thereby considered as high-risk drivers. The aim of this study was to analyze young driver crash contributing factors and evaluate the Louisiana’s GDL program. Based on a comprehensive literature review, a wide array of crash attributes was identified as potentially influential. A Multinomial Logit (MNL) model was developed to analyze crash contributing factors to indicate their relative crash likelihood among young driver age groups. Several Mann-Kendall (M-K) tests have been performed to detect and quantify the gradual trend of young driver crashes. These crash trends have also been visualized by Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA)method to supplement the M-K test results. To quantitatively assess the impacts of GDL policy changes on young driver crash and consequential casualties, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variables (SARIMAX) method has been applied. In spatial analysis, an analytical approach using ArcGIS to find hotspots of young driver crashes has been performed following the exploration of young driver crashes within Louisiana’s nine safety coalitions. The results from the MNL model analysis on selected attributes using 5-year crash data derived several key insights on their potential linkup with crashes with three young driver groups at fault—novice teen (15-16 years), young teen (17-19 years), and young adult (20-24 years). Young driver groups are strongly associated with driving violations, use of electronic devices alongside cellphone, non-use of driver protection system, and nighttime driving. M-Ktests and ITA plots on long term crash frequency data, disaggregated by month, showed substantial decrease in crashes and severities related to these young driver age groups and specific characteristics of underage alcohol intoxication, cellphone use, non-usage of restraints. Time series analyses on GDL legislative policies indicated significant reductions in crash and associated casualties due to GDL implementation except for young adult driver groups. Spatial clusters of young driver crashes showed that they are highly concentrated in urban areas. The substantial decline of number of crashes and associated casualties involving young drivers suggests that implementation of the GDL program has been a success in Louisiana. This study provides a foundation to further explore specific crash patterns and trends, develop a statewide GDL curriculum, and evaluate the safety effectiveness of countermeasures for the improvement of young driver safety.
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