Risk Assessment in Fixed Guideway Transit System Construction
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1994-01-01
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Abstract:The importance and urgency of risk analysis in today's complex projects, in face of financial constraints, has spurred several research efforts in this area. Cost overruns are commonplace in the design and construction of complex capital projects such as fixed guideway transit systems. One major reason for cost overruns is the uncertainty inherent in various aspects of the work. This uncertainty can result in a wide range of outcomes that in turn may impact project cost and schedule in unfavorable ways. Risk assessment is difficult in large capital transit projects. Yet, it is imperative that the owners or sponsors engage in a rigorous, systematic analysis of major sources of risk. The objective of this report is to help the owner or sponsor in developing a framework for managing risk in the design and construction of fixed guideway transit projects. Risk, as used in the context of this report, is defined primarily as the potential for monetary loss resulting from uncertainty about the project. In order to develop the risk management framework, first the sources of risk must be identified and categorized. Then a measurement system should be used to quantify the risk. Finally, each risk item should be allocated between the parties involved in an equitable manner. If the project risks can be identified in a timely manner, quantified in a logical way, and allocated properly between the project participants (sponsor, owner, contractor, and engineer), then the likelihood of significant cost and schedule overruns will be reduced considerably.
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