United States Department of Transportation
i
Developing an Evidence-Based Framework for Bypass and Widening Projects and the Effects on Communities
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2021-05-01
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[PDF-14.96 MB]
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:This research examines the impacts of highway bypass, widening, and no-improvement projects on the economic and safety conditions of small towns in Arkansas. This research provides evidence-based comparisons of bypass, widening, and no improvement projects in Arkansas that can be used to support the public outreach and community decision making processes. Through a case study approach, the impacts under varied project settings are assessed and measured. The study sites include five bypass locations, two widening projects, and two no-improvement locations. For regional economic impact estimation, the research project applied an IMPLAN model and compared it to the EconWorks Assess My Project Tool. Bypass study sites had a slightly higher median employment, labor income, value added, output, and tax revenue generated than widening sites. Comparing the EconWorks and IMPLAN estimates for direct jobs shows errors of up to 1,008%. Therefore, a “simplified methodology” that uses the IMPLAN results but does not require IMPLAN analysis or detailed data was developed to estimate impacts for future project sites in Arkansas. To compliment the regional economic impact analyses, statistical and econometric approaches were implemented including time series regression and matched city comparisons. For bypass study sites, the statistical analyses support the conclusion that bypass projects cause a statistically significant increase in the per capita GDP for real estate and rentals, per capita GDP overall, and the number of establishments in the city. Weaker evidence was found to support the statistical significance of bypass projects causing increases in sales tax revenue, population density, home price, per capita GDP for retail, and the number of employees in the city. The perceived economic impacts generated from interviews with local residents tended to agree with the estimated impacts resulting from the economic impact analyses, but, in most cases, residents did not attribute the economic changes to the bypass or widening projects. For bypass study sites, the statistical analysis of crash rates shows that the crash rates pre-and post- bypass completion were not statistically different in the majority of sites. For widening projects, a significant effect on crash rates was found relative to statewide averages but not relative to their own historical patterns. The research products generated from this project include the development of seven case studies in a format that can be submitted to the EconWorks Assess My Project Database and used for public hearing meetings for future projects.
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