United States Department of Transportation
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Large-Scale and Long-Term Forecasting of Performance Measurement of Public Transportation Systems
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2021-07-26
[PDF-1.05 MB]
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Edition:Final report (8/16/2020 – 8/15/2021)
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Abstract:Accurate forecasting of public transportation metrics is critical towards the high reliability and efficiency of the public transportation system. However, deploying a forecasting system to serve city-level public transportation with long-term forecasting is challenging. In this project, we develop the capability for processing the entire Los Angeles Metropolitan Area (LAMA) for long-term forecasting of a variety of public transportation system performance metrics. First, we explore both spatial statistical methods and machine learning methods to estimate traffic flows for the road segments that do not have traffic sensors. Second, we develop methods to enable traffic forecasting with a deep learning model designed for small networks for the entire LAMA road network. We also study various training strategies (e.g., teacher forcing) to enable accurate long-term forecasting of traffic flows and bus arrival times. Lastly, we develop an end-to-end deep learning approach that combines the estimation and forecasting of traffic flow with data imputation methods for estimating bus arrival time for each stop in individual bus routes in LAMA. Using the real-world data in the University of Southern California Archived Transportation Data Management System (ADMS), we show that the proposed approach and system are capable of predicting bus arrival times with a city-level spatial coverage and a route-level temporal forecasting horizon. We also demonstrate the overall result of the bus arrival time estimation in a web dashboard. This dashboard enables users at all levels of technical skills to benefit from the developed machine learning approach and access to valuable information for trip planning, vehicle management, and policymaking.
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