Analysis and testing of Koornstra-type induced exposure models
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Analysis and testing of Koornstra-type induced exposure models

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English
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  • Creators:
    Mengert, Peter
  • Corporate Creators:
    John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
  • Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Publication/ Report Number:
    FR-45-U-FAA-86-01
  • Resource Type:
    Tech Report
  • OCLC Number:
    173447379
  • Corporate Publisher:
    United States. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
  • NTL Classification:
    NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-SAFETY AND SECURITY;NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-Human Factors;
  • Abstract:
    Induced exposure models postulate a structure for accident data which permits the

    estimation of two factors: exposure and proneness. Since information on exposure

    is needed in order to assess the accident risk of different driver, vehicle, and

    environmental situations and since reliable exposure data is expensive to collect,

    induced exposure models hold the promise of a rich exposure data source which is

    perfectly matched to the accident data to be analyzed. This paper assesses the

    validity of the postulated structure of one induced exposure model: the Koornstra

    Model. The Koornstra Model was chosen for analysis and testing because it

    appeared to have the most potential for usefulness based on :

    a) previously reported favorable results (in limited testing);

    b) universal applicability;

    c) damaging criticism of certain other models; and

    d) a rich and well posed model structure.

    This paper analyses and tests the Koornstra Model from three different points of

    view:

    1) Is it based on reasonable assumptions?

    2) Does the model provide a significantly better fit to accident data than

    a simpler model which does not permit exposure or proneness to be

    estimated?

    3) How do the exposure estimates provided by the model compare with

    those from externally collected data?

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