Analysis and testing of Koornstra-type induced exposure models
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Analysis and testing of Koornstra-type induced exposure models

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  • English
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    Details:

    • Creators:
      Mengert, Peter
    • Corporate Creators:
      John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
    • Subject/TRT Terms:
    • Publication/ Report Number:
      FR-45-U-FAA-86-01
    • Resource Type:
      Tech Report
    • OCLC Number:
      173447379
    • Corporate Publisher:
      United States. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
    • NTL Classification:
      NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-SAFETY AND SECURITY;NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-Human Factors;
    • Abstract:
      Induced exposure models postulate a structure for accident data which permits the

      estimation of two factors: exposure and proneness. Since information on exposure

      is needed in order to assess the accident risk of different driver, vehicle, and

      environmental situations and since reliable exposure data is expensive to collect,

      induced exposure models hold the promise of a rich exposure data source which is

      perfectly matched to the accident data to be analyzed. This paper assesses the

      validity of the postulated structure of one induced exposure model: the Koornstra

      Model. The Koornstra Model was chosen for analysis and testing because it

      appeared to have the most potential for usefulness based on :

      a) previously reported favorable results (in limited testing);

      b) universal applicability;

      c) damaging criticism of certain other models; and

      d) a rich and well posed model structure.

      This paper analyses and tests the Koornstra Model from three different points of

      view:

      1) Is it based on reasonable assumptions?

      2) Does the model provide a significantly better fit to accident data than

      a simpler model which does not permit exposure or proneness to be

      estimated?

      3) How do the exposure estimates provided by the model compare with

      those from externally collected data?

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