Methodological Issues in the Study of Airplane Accident Rates by Pilot Age: Effects of Accident and Pilot Inclusion Criteria and Analytic Strategy
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2004-05-01
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By Broach, Dana
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Abstract:At the direction of the U.S. Senate, Broach, Schroeder, and Joseph (2000a, b) examined accident rates by age for professional air transport and commercial pilots using an analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. As an extension of that work, this report focuses on methodological issues requiring careful consideration and definition in any analysis of aviation accident rates by pilot age. Three methodological issues are considered: (a) accident inclusion criteria; (b) pilot inclusion criteria; and (c) analytic strategy. Previous studies are interpreted with respect to these issues, and an additional analysis is presented to illustrate the impact of methodological choices on study outcomes. Overall, the comparisons and additional analysis indicate that accident and pilot inclusion criteria and analytic strategy have substantial impact on study outcomes. Recommendations are presented for future studies of the relationship of pilot age to aviation accidents.
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