United States Department of Transportation
i
Time Series Analyses of Integrated Terminal Weather System Effects on System Airport Efficiency Ratings
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2007-10-01
[PDF-564.80 KB]
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:The Federal Aviation Administration has initiated efforts to improve weather information, forecasting, and dissemination to enhance both safety and operational efficiency. The FAA has also adopted the System Airport Efficiency Rate (SAER) as a metric of facility operating efficiency that accounts for weather by using either actual demand or the facility-set arrival rate as the denominator, reflecting a reduction in the published ability to handle departures or arrivals due to prevailing weather conditions. Interventions aimed at improving performance should be observable in our metrics. However, acceptance and widespread use of the SAER raises the question of whether a weather-adjusted measure is sensitive enough to evaluate the efficacy of interventions aimed at improving performance during inclement weather. One such intervention is the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). In the present study, we applied time series analysis to average daily and monthly SAERs at 13 airports. We modeled SAER data at each airport prior to ITWS implementation and then tested whether each ITWS build (i.e., subsequent software updates and added functionality) affected SAER values. Though some statistically significant effects were found (both positive and negative), the patterns of these effects were not consistent enough to draw any definite conclusions. The fact that we were unable to make a clear determination about the effectiveness of ITWS implementation suggests that the SAER may “control out” the variance needed to detect the consequences of interventions. Thus, it is imperative that the raw data from which they are derived remain readily available to evaluate the efficacy of changes to the system, because simply monitoring facility and system effectiveness measures may obscure or discount intervention effects. This implies a requirement for the future: As we pursue the concepts, technologies, and procedures necessary to Next Generation Air Traffic capabilities, it is absolutely vital that we also plan for their assessment and evaluation.
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