Development of a method to forecast freight demand arising from the final demand sector and examination of federal data to analyze transportation demand for local area through trips : final report for Alabama Department of Transportation, research project
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Development of a method to forecast freight demand arising from the final demand sector and examination of federal data to analyze transportation demand for local area through trips : final report for Alabama Department of Transportation, research project

Filetype[PDF-2.01 MB]


  • English

  • Details:

    • Publication/ Report Number:
    • Resource Type:
    • Geographical Coverage:
    • Edition:
      Final report; June 2004
    • NTL Classification:
      NTL-FREIGHT-FREIGHT
    • Abstract:
      This report describes the research performed to develop a framework and a research

      approach to achieve insight into two important components of freight transportation in

      Alabama, and the U.S. The first objective is to develop the ability to project freight

      traffic arising from retail sales to households or to the final demand sector of the

      economy. Normally, this involves shipments from distribution centers and bonded

      warehouses to retailers located in the state’s population centers. The research

      demonstrates that this final leg of a shipment’s journey to the consumer is growing very

      fast and evolving rapidly.

      Major retail centers were identified in all of Alabama’s cities with populations of over

      25,000. A subset of the retailers in these communities was chosen for a detailed analysis

      of their distribution network. The researchers conducted interviews to gather information

      about how each network operates. The information collected from the survey included

      the geographical region served, the physical and operational characteristics of the

      network, volume of traffic, and anticipated future traffic volumes. The survey revealed

      that most distribution networks serving Alabama can either be characterized as hub and

      spoke or route-based. The survey also uncovered many unique characteristics of each

      network.

      Finally, researchers determined a method to allocate freight traffic arising from the final

      demand sector to Alabama counties. Several variables were tested including population,

      employment, payroll and personal income. It was found that total personal income of

      residents in the county appeared to work best with population coming in second.

      The second research objective focuses on the use of federal freight flow data to forecast

      the amount of pass through freight expected in urbanized areas in the state. The report

      documents procedures developed to utilize the Freight Analysis Framework Version 2

      Database to determine the number of vehicles passing through an urban area in Alabama.

      The procedures developed in this research focus on the national level pass through data,

      trips from one state to another that pass through other states only because of that state’s

      location; pass through from the port of entries, where the urbanized area is located on a

      major corridor; and statewide level through trip data, trips from one part of the state to

      another that pass through the urbanized area because of its geographic location.

      The need for, and application of, the pass through freight forecasting is evident in the

      transportation planning models each state is expected to develop and maintain for

      evaluating transportation projects. The ability to forecast accurately the pass through

      freight movements will benefit transportation planners in urbanized areas by being able to identify freight volumes that must be accommodated by the infrastructure, but for which

      the local area has no direct method to survey.

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