United States Department of Transportation
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A Snapshot of Travel Modeling Activities: Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC), North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG), Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC), Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG)
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2008-08-08
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Abstract:Most Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO) use travel demand models in some form to assist with transportation planning activities. The use of travel demand models and their outputs in regional decision-making was initiated in the mid- to late-1950s and has become a standard for many aspects of planning, including the development of regional transportation plans, air quality conformity determinations, corridor and subarea planning, alternatives analyses, Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Section 5309 New Starts analyses, and detailed project planning. Over the past 50 years, the “four-step” travel demand modeling process has provided the basis for most travel forecasts performed by MPOs. While this framework has worked well over the years, particularly for the analysis and evaluation of large projects such as new roadways and transit systems, the four-step model has come under increasing criticism recently. This is due primarily to its limited capability to respond to emerging questions regarding traveler behavior, and its insensitivity to policy and pricing alternatives. Indeed, the recent National Academies of Science (NAS) study commissioned to assess the current practices and future direction of metropolitan travel forecasting concluded that the demands on forecasting models have grown significantly in recent years as a result of new policy concerns, and that existing models are inadequate to address many of them.1 MPOs have taken different approaches to address these issues, including refining the traditional four-step travel demand modeling process to improve internal consistency, providing additional analysis capabilities, and redeveloping travel demand models wholesale to focus on individual traveler behavior. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and contractor staff visited five Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO) in March 2008 to determine how travel demand models and the resulting travel forecasts have been used in the regional planning process, and how the travel demand models are used to address emerging issues. MPOs were chosen based on recognized leadership in the industry and a history of considering travel forecasts in the development of regional plans, rather than simply using them as means to show that air quality conformity requirements are being met. Each of the five MPOs has indicated its commitment to use travel demand models to support the regional planning process through the continued refinement of current travel demand models and the development of advanced travel demand forecasting tools.
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