United States Department of Transportation
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Assessment of Planning Risks and Alternative Futures for the Florida Transportation Plan Update [Project BDV31-977-98]
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2019-09-01
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[PDF-2.51 MB]
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Edition:Final
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Abstract:A strong consensus is emerging that changes in technology, environmental conditions, demographics and associated travel choices, global trade and security, and transportation funding increase risks in long-range transportation planning. These factors are creating a need to develop a diverse set of alternative future scenarios that address these risks and their timing. This report summarizes the research that is presented in four previous technical memoranda that document the risks associated with these risk categories as a part of the update of the Florida Transportation Plan (FTP). In this report, we first define the terms associated with risk assessment, in particular, vulnerability, target/asset, threat, likelihood, consequences, and risk. We then summarize the risks associated with these uncertainties, vulnerabilities, assets affected, the level of vulnerability and the consequences associated with these five broad sources of transportation risk: population, demographics, and migration; economics and revenues; environment; technology; and global issues including security. We then explore the uncertainty leading to risk and the consequences for each of the five risks associated with the FTP: Return to Historic Growth, Rural Rediscovery, Global Trade Hub, Innovation Hub, and Risks on the Horizon. We develop a risk matrix for each of the five broad categories of risk that summarizes the likelihood, frequency, vulnerability, thresholds and consequences of risks. We end the document with examples of best practices from other U.S. states and recommendations for the FDOT to incorporate into the update of the FTP.
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